Why Are Liver Disease Deaths Rising?

The UK is one of the only countries in Western Europe where liver disease deaths have been rising consistently. Since 2001, total deaths from liver disease have increased by around 39%, from 9,231 to 12,802 per year.^[1] The pandemic accelerated the trend sharply: increased alcohol consumption during lockdowns pushed annual deaths above 13,000 in 2021.^[1] While there has been a modest retreat since that peak, deaths remain far above the long-run trajectory that existed before COVID-19.

Three factors drive the crisis. Alcohol-related liver disease accounts for roughly 45% of all liver deaths and has risen in step with cheap alcohol availability and a culture of heavy drinking that public health messaging has failed to dislodge.^[2] Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), linked to obesity and type 2 diabetes, is the fastest-growing cause and now affects an estimated one in three UK adults, most of whom are undiagnosed.^[3] Viral hepatitis B and C, though now treatable, still causes preventable deaths because screening remains patchy and many infected people do not know their status.^[6]

Premature liver deaths -- those in people under 65 -- have risen even faster, up 43% since 2001.^[4] This is distinctive: most other major causes of death in the UK have falling premature mortality rates. The regional pattern is stark, with mortality rates in the North East nearly double those in the South East, closely mirroring patterns of deprivation, alcohol harm, and obesity prevalence.^[5]