Is Britain Actually Decarbonising?

UK greenhouse gas emissions fell 49% between 1990 and 2022 — one of the fastest reductions among major economies.^[1] Almost all of it came from two sectors: electricity generation and heavy industry. The electricity story is a genuine success. Coal supplied 40% of UK power in 2012; by 2024 it had been phased out entirely. Renewables now account for 47% of electricity generation, led by offshore wind, where the UK has built the world's largest fleet at 14.7 GW.^[2,4] The cost of offshore wind has fallen 70% since 2015. These were the achievable wins. The hard sectors remain largely untouched.

Transport produces 26% of UK emissions; 92% of cars on the road are still petrol or diesel.^[1] Buildings account for 17%; 24 million homes are heated by gas boilers, and only 60,000 heat pumps were installed in 2023 against the 600,000 per year needed by the mid-2020s to stay on track. Agriculture, at 11% of emissions, has seen almost no reduction in thirty years. The Climate Change Committee — the statutory body that advises government — found in its 2023 annual progress report that the UK was “off track” for a majority of its near-term 2030 milestones.^[3] The legally binding target is a 68% reduction by 2030, relative to 1990.